Recovery Time Models for Natural and Anthropogenic Disasters on Mindanao

Abstract

This study proposed to develop models for recovery periods for the survivors of both natural and anthropogenic disasters in Mindanao using the 2011-2012 typhoons as basis for the natural disaster component and the Lanao del Norte-Maguindanao massacre as illustrative cases for anthropogenic disasters. The process of recovery is gradual and it takes time to fully recover. The phenomenon can be modelled as Dose Response curve. Results revealed that the survivors in natural calamities can recover faster compared to  survivors of man-made calamities. The latter survivors have to contend with personal and psychological issues that will take a longer healing process. On the other hand, survivors of natural calamities do not have any person to blame because the calamities are part of Nature and so acceptance is far easier for them. Physical rehabilitation of damaged infrastructure and community facilities form part of the healing process for the survivors of natural calamities. This is not the case for man-made disaster survivors. In a natural calamity, the recovery time of survivors will depend on the intensity of the disaster. In  anthropogenic disasters, the recovery time of survivors will depend on the casualties. The rates of recovery are estimated using the logistic regression method while the odds of recovery after time (t) are computed from the regression results.